%0 Journal Article %T Using bayesian models and Monte Carlo methods to predict cyber threats %A Panilov, P.A. %K cybersecurity, cyber threat forecasting, Bayesian models, Monte Carlo methods, risk analysis, data leakage, social engineering %J Vestnik of Astrakhan State Technical University. Series: Management, computer science and informatics %D 2024 %N 2024 %P 9 %I Astrakhan State Technical University